
By Liam Jordan on Febuary 3rd, 2010.
Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air
Prediction: The odds on best picture have changed dramatically this year, with the field extending to ten films. This allows for the inclusion of more dark horse entries, like the Pixar smash Up. It's the first animated film nominated for Best Picture since Beauty and the Beast.
Still, five of these films also have a corresponding entry in the Best Director category- Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious and Up In The Air, so these are the most likely to win favour with the voters. All eyes are on ex-partners James Cameron and Kathryn Bigelow as Avatar and The Hurt Locker fight it out. They couldn't be more different films if they tried, and critical praise is behind Bigelow all the way.
Winner: The Hurt Locker
Jame Cameron, Avatar
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Prediction: Bigelow is only the fourth woman in Oscar history to have been nominated, as well as the only woman to receive the Director's Guild Award. Daniels is only the second African-American to be nominated, after John Singleton for Boyz N The Hood. Tarantino and Reitman have both done excellent work this year, but the Academy would be crazy to miss the opportunity to give the Oscar to a woman, especially since The Hurt Locker is a genuinely great film.
Winner: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Prediction: 10 years ago this would have been a certainty for Freeman, but the lack of nominations elsewhere for Invictus show there's not much faith in the film. Crazy Heart was a career boost for Bridges, whose deep and affecting work elevated the material. Clooney, while great, still had one foot in slick-guy mode, which doesn't impress the voters.
Winner: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Prediction: Women generally do better in period roles, but the Academy also looks favourably to newcomers. Streep already has 16 nominations, Carey Mulligan might be a surprise win but a statue for Gabourey would complete the 'unknown's rise to fame' story that nobody in Hollywood can resist.
Winner: Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Prediction: Critics have been all over Christoph Waltz, who went from relative unknown to beloved Tarantino star in under a year. Difficult to see anyone else take this.
Winner: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up In The Air
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
Anna Kendrick, Up In The Air
Mo'nique, Precious
Prediction: Precious will almost certainly be overshadowed by The Hurt Locker in the big two, but this year's nominations look like a weaker field with two actresses from one film nominated here. Voters will want to give Precious something, and this is the most likely place.
Winner: Mo'nique, Precious
Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman, The Messenger
Joel & Ethan Coen, A Serious Man
Pete Docter, Bob Peterson, & Thomas McCarthy, Up
Prediction: The Coen brothers already have two Screenplay Oscars (original for Fargo, adapted for No Country For Old Men) so a third could be unlikely this year. Based largely on the strength of Waltz's critical praise, this might just be Tarantino's year.
Winner: Inglourious Basterds
Neil Blomkamp & Terri Tatchell, District 9
Nick Hornby, An Education
Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Ianucci, & Tony Roche, In The Loop
Geoffrey Fletcher, Precious
Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner, Up In The Air
Prediction: District 9 had a great screenplay but will almost certainly end up with no wins, as it's overshadowed by Avatar in every other category and the voters are generally against Science Fiction. Without an acting win, the voters will want Up In The Air to collect something, so Reitman and Turner are unlikely to go away empty handed.
Winner: Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air
Ajami (Israel)
El secreto de sus ojos (Argentina)
The Milk of Sorrow (Peru)
Un Prophete (France)
The White Ribbon (Germany)
Prediction: Haneke's The White Ribbon was a hit at last year's Sundance, and the other nominations haven't been on anyone's radar. Easy win here.
Winner: The White Ribbon (Germany)
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
The Secret of Kells
Up
Prediction: The biggest surprise here is the absence of Miyazaki's sublime Ponyo. Pixar usually does well here, but Up's dual nomination to best picture may split the vote enough to allow the well-liked Fantastic Mr Fox a chance.
Winner: Fantastic Mr. Fox
Oscars pictures courtesy of thefilmstage.com
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